
Russia's 2023 oat crop is forecast at 3.48 mmt, down from 4.53 mmt previously, within a grain harvest of about 140 mmt. In Baden-Württemberg, drought has pushed oat yields about 25% below last year, with output expected to fall 18% to 79,000 mt.
Brazilian white oat crops are progressing through the growing stages.
Lower Russian and German oat output reduces exportable supply and supports prices, especially as the Canadian crop is also short. Feed buyers may face firmer offers in Europe and the Black Sea.
After 68 past bullish weather events, Oats moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.