
USDA raised its 2026-27 US corn yield forecast to a record 181.2 bushels per acre in the October WASDE, above trade expectations. Ending stocks were raised to 1.85 billion bushels and the farmgate price forecast was cut to $4.70 a bushel.
A higher yield and larger ending stocks add to supply and weigh on corn prices, while raised global corn stocks also pressure the broader grain complex.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.