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Lean hog futures settled 45 to 87 cents lower going into the USDA Hogs & Pigs report, which showed all hogs and pigs up 1.27% year over year, above estimates. Breeding hogs fell 3.19% and June-August farrowing intentions were down 3.53%.
A larger-than-expected inventory increase adds supply pressure, though the decline in breeding stock and farrowing intentions may limit longer-term downside.
After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.