Exxon CEO Darren Woods said diesel is the key crunch point in a global fuel shortage tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the US-Israel war with Iran. Exxon's refineries are running at record utilization and diesel yields are at record highs.
Global diesel shortage tied to Hormuz closure lifts distillate prices and freight costs, with spillover into energy-linked feed inputs.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.