
Argentine soybean meal export prices fell below CBOT futures for the first time in two years as the new soybean harvest arrived and demand slowed. Argentina's 2023/24 soybean crop is put at 50.5 million tons, nearly double the prior season, with crush expected to rise 40%.
Heavier Argentine crush and cheaper export meal increase global meal supply, pressuring soymeal prices and pushing buyers toward cheaper origins.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 52 past trade events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.