
Brent futures rose 13.6% and WTI 15.2% in October, with Reuters linking the gains to Iran war supply concerns and a Hormuz tanker attack. US 10-year Treasury yields fell from 5.24% to 4.94% over the month.
A BlackRock portfolio manager said AI-related growth fears were shaping bond-market thinking.
Crude gains driven by war-related supply risk raise energy and fertiliser costs, while falling yields and a weaker growth outlook point to macro headwinds that could cap broader commodity demand.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.