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UK November 2024 wheat futures rose about 15% through April and May on European and Black Sea weather risks, then fell 12% in June as harvest results proved better than expected. Russian yields are strong, Romanian and Bulgarian quality is excellent, and US winter wheat harvest is advancing quickly with yields highest since 2020.
Better-than-expected Black Sea and US harvests add export supply and pressure global wheat prices lower, which benefits feed grain buyers sourcing wheat.
fas.scotJul 1, 2024After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 70 past bearish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and -1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
