
Butter and block cheese prices broke out of multi-month trading ranges in mid-August, with block cheese reaching $2.10, its highest since March 2023. Spot milk is trading at Class III plus up to $2.00 as schools pull milk for bottling, and USDA cut its 2024 milk production estimate by 600 million pounds.
A reduced USDA milk production forecast combined with seasonal fall demand points to firmer dairy prices and tighter milk supply, which supports dairy-related feed demand.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.