
A peer-reviewed study in Environmental Research Letters argues the EUDR contains loopholes that could increase trade in deforestation-linked agricultural goods, and that ratification of the EU-Mercosur trade agreement could exploit them. The authors are from Karlsruhe Institute of Technology and the University of Edinburgh.
If Mercosur trade expands alongside weak EUDR enforcement, Brazilian and Argentine soy and meal could gain EU market share, a longer-term bearish factor for other suppliers.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.