ClientEarth welcomed two European Commission studies on deforestation, one on palm oil production and certification schemes and one comparing EU policy options. The feasibility study found a due diligence regulation for forest-risk commodities would likely have the greatest impact.
A binding EU due diligence regime would raise compliance costs for palm oil and soy imports, a possible supportive factor for vegetable oil and meal prices. Timing and scope remain uncertain.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.