
Warm, dry weather is forecast for eastern Australia with temperatures above 30 C and no rain expected, and record winter heat in central Australia. Crop conditions are reported as excellent, though early warmth could trim yields.
ASX wheat futures fell $15 to $310 a tonne, their lowest in almost five years.
Possible yield trimming from early warmth is a modest upside risk, but the falling futures show that global price pressure is dominating and keeping Australian grain values low.
After 334 past bearish weather events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.