Australia's barley production is forecast at 17.7 million tonnes for 2026-27, up about 700,000 tonnes (4.4%) year on year and roughly 40% above the 10-year average. Barley exports are projected at 13 million tonnes, which would be a second consecutive record, while wheat output falls.
A large Australian barley crop and record exports add supply to the feed grain market, which is bearish for barley and competing feed grains, while the wheat decline is mildly supportive for wheat prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.