
Cheddar block prices climbed to $2.27 per pound in early September, the highest spot level in 27 months on the CME. CoBank economists link this to tight cheese supplies in the US and Europe, limited dairy replacements, and an EU bluetongue outbreak plus US HPAI issues.
Tighter dairy supply and reduced culling point to a slower rebuild of milk output, supporting dairy prices and sustaining demand for dairy feed inputs over the medium term.
After 22 past bullish disease events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -0.9% to +0.5%), and -2.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.