
A New Zealand Ministry for Primary Industries report warns that a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak would force large-scale culling of livestock, including millions of cattle, sheep and lambs. It also estimates the outbreak would push up world commodity prices, lower the NZ dollar and threaten more than 80,000 jobs.
A hypothetical FMD outbreak in a major exporter would cut meat supply and trade, lifting global red meat prices and feed demand for export markets, though the risk is still hypothetical.
After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 22 past bullish disease events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -0.9% to +0.5%), and -2.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.