
Western states continue to report H5N1 in wild and domestic birds, dairy cattle and swine. USDA is expanding testing, including bulk raw milk sampling, and has approved field trials for several cattle vaccines.
Ongoing poultry and dairy infections add supply risk for chicken and milk, and expanded testing and vaccine trials signal the outbreak is not easing. Price impact so far is modest but the risk is persistent.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 22 past bullish disease events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -0.9% to +0.5%), and -2.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.