
The yuan ticked lower against the dollar on October 31 as investors looked past a rise in China's October manufacturing PMI to the US election and China policy risks. Opinion polls show Trump and Harris roughly tied, and Trump has promised tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese goods.
Dollar strength and yuan weakness ahead of the election reflect expected tariff escalation, which could hurt Chinese demand for US soybeans and corn and pressure those prices.
After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.