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The yuan has been weak since early 2023 and has spent 17 months on the weaker side of 7 per dollar, falling roughly 2%. Traders are positioning for a Trump win that would pressure the currency further.
A persistently weak yuan raises the cost of imported feed commodities for Chinese buyers, which can weigh on US export demand and prices.
After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.