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The October 11 WASDE lowered the 2024 US milk production forecast to 225.8 billion pounds and cut the 2024 all-milk price to $22.80/cwt. Cheese and butter price forecasts fell while whey and nonfat dry milk forecasts rose.
Lower milk output and mixed product prices point to firm dairy values, though lower cheese and butter forecasts weigh on the milk price outlook.
After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.