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A paid newsletter analysis argues that OPEC+'s scheduled 2.2 MMbpd increase would push the market into oversupply in 2025 if executed. It suggests a smaller 1.1 MMbpd easing pace as a middle ground and notes that murmurs of another delay are circulating.
Commentary on the likely December OPEC+ decision signals that a delay is expected, which underpins crude prices and energy costs for feed buyers.
commoditycontext.comRory JohnstonOct 31, 2024After 187 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 175 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
