◂ Event Timeline

Feb 2, 2021POLICYGlobal

OPEC+ calm ahead of committee meeting as oil prices rise, but tough decisions loom

Ahead of a monitoring committee meeting on February 3, OPEC+ delegates expected routine talks on quota compliance and forecasts, with no changes to the deal. Oil prices had risen back to pre-crash levels after Saudi Arabia's surprise extra output cut.

Harder talks are expected at the full ministerial meeting on March 4.

WHY IT MATTERS

Expectations of a calm meeting leave current quotas in place and keep prices supported in the short term. Divisions over post-March supply are the main risk to the price outlook.

AFFECTSCrude Oil (Brent)◆Crude Oil (WTI)◆

SOURCE
spglobal.comHerman WangFeb 2, 2021

Price reaction & history

Crude Oil (Brent)◆neutralSO FAR1d +2.0%5d +7.1%20d +13.7%

After 175 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.

Jul 14, 2023OPEC+ monitoring committee to meet Aug 3 to review oil output cuts: delegates | S&P Global-2.1%
May 1, 2019Oil prices mixed as talk of extending OPEC cuts faces rising U.S. supply-2.9%
Feb 1, 2024Opec+ committee meeting keeps oil output policy unchanged - The Business Times-2.6%
Feb 1, 2023OPEC+ committee recommends no change in oil output policy at virtual meeting-0.8%
Feb 6, 2025Q&A: Repercussions of Saudi Oil Decisions Amid Competing Trump and OPEC+ Priorities - Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA | CGEP %+0.8%

Crude Oil (WTI)◆neutralSO FAR1d +2.3%5d +8.2%20d +11.5%

After 187 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.

May 1, 2019Oil prices mixed as talk of extending OPEC cuts faces rising U.S. supply-3.8%
Feb 1, 2024Opec+ committee meeting keeps oil output policy unchanged - The Business Times-2.6%
Feb 1, 2023OPEC+ committee recommends no change in oil output policy at virtual meeting-2.2%
Feb 6, 2025Q&A: Repercussions of Saudi Oil Decisions Amid Competing Trump and OPEC+ Priorities - Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA | CGEP %+0.5%
Aug 3, 2022OPEC agrees to produce slightly more oil as recession fears loom | CNN Business-4.1%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Crude Oil (Brent) BRENT · GP ▸

——— · ·

Crude Oil (WTI) WTI · GP ▸

——— · ·

Loading…