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Kpler says China's 4% export VAT change should support Singapore ULSD cracks and push them higher. It also expects weak Atlantic Basin fundamentals to pressure European gasoline cracks.
Changes in Chinese export tax treatment shift product flows toward Asia, supporting Asian distillate margins and indirectly diesel costs for regional buyers.
After 26 past bullish trade events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.9% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -5.6% to +1.6%), and -4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.