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The International Grains Council tightened its 2024/25 global wheat outlook, projecting grain ending stocks at a 10-year low and exports at a six-year low. Europe's wheat exports are running 30% below last year's pace, with Algeria and Morocco cutting demand.
Renewed Middle East and Black Sea tensions have added war premiums to prices.
Tighter supply forecasts and weaker European export flows support wheat prices. The fall in Algerian and Moroccan demand limits how far those prices can rise.
fas.scotNov 29, 2024After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
