
The JRC MARS November bulletin said favourable temperatures and soil moisture helped farmers speed up sowing across most of Europe. Conditions were unfavourable in parts of Spain, Italy, Romania, Bulgaria, and parts of Ukraine and Russia, with very dry soils in Sicily raising durum concerns.
Dry soils in southern and eastern Europe and the Black Sea could slow emergence and reduce yields, a modest risk to wheat supply. Most of the bloc's crop is developing well, so price impact is limited.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.