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The EU Joint Research Centre's MARS bulletin reports a severe spring rainfall deficit in north-western Europe, with soil moisture critically low there. Iberia, Italy and Greece have had abundant rain, with Spain and Portugal forecast 15-20% above the five-year average yields.
Irreversible losses are expected in western Maghreb, eastern Ukraine and Cyprus.
Mixed EU yield prospects leave wheat and barley supply uncertain, with northern dryness offset by southern gains. Buyers should watch for further moisture stress in key feed-grain regions, which could firm feed grain prices.
joint-research-centre.ec.europa.euMay 26, 2025After 224 past neutral weather events, WHEAT moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 445 past neutral weather events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
