
Oklahoma State economist Amy Hagerman said a new farm bill before the new administration takes office in January is unlikely. She urged producers to monitor disaster programs and meet January sign-up deadlines because the 2018 farm bill has expired.
She warned that rolling over into permanent legislation would create negative consequences for Title 1 programs.
Uncertainty over commodity program sign-ups could affect farmers' marketing and acreage decisions for corn and soybeans. The effect on prices is modest and largely expected.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.