
The Mexican peso erased earlier gains after Trump said he would impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico over fentanyl, pushing USD/MXN to 20.74. Trump also said he would likely decide on tariffs on oil from Canada and Mexico.
Proposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, plus possible oil tariffs, raise trade and energy cost risks for North American agriculture and feed flows.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 36 past bullish trade events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.6% over 5 sessions (69% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.5%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.