
The yuan hovered near a 16-month low against the dollar despite PBOC support measures, including raised corporate borrowing limits abroad. Pressure came from a stronger dollar after US jobs data, falling Chinese bond yields and trade tensions.
Trade data for December beat expectations, partly from front-loading ahead of possible tariffs.
Persistent yuan weakness and the tariff front-loading signal can shift Chinese import timing and currency-driven buying of US soybeans and meal, favoring Brazilian origins at the margin.
After 398 past bullish macro events, USDCNY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, SOY moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.