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BIMCO reports that China's imported grain shipments fell 51% year-over-year in January, hitting Panamax vessels, which carry 83% of China's grain cargoes. U.S. cargoes to China dropped 57% and Brazilian cargoes 29%.
The Baltic Panamax Index has fallen 41% from last year to its lowest since May 2020.
Weaker Chinese demand for soybeans and grain, driven by high inventories, low crusher margins and record domestic harvests, is bearish for soybean and grain prices and for ocean freight rates.
gcaptain.comMike SchulerJan 28, 2025After 803 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
