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China's grain purchases have fallen to about 20 million tonnes a year for wheat, corn, barley and sorghum, versus 60 million tonnes in 2021-22. An Argus analyst attributes the drop to record domestic wheat and corn output, tight tariff-rate quotas, and limits on bonded-zone processors.
Corn output for 2025-26 is forecast at a record 295 to 298 million tonnes.
Structurally lower Chinese import demand removes a major buyer from global grain markets, which is bearish for wheat, corn, barley and sorghum export prices. Lower import needs also weaken demand for feed grains from exporters.
ukragroconsult.comSep 2, 2025After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
