◂ Event Timeline

Jan 7, 2025MACROUS

Dollar firms as solid US data suggests Fed likely to slow easing cycle

The dollar firmed after solid US data, with rate futures pricing about a 95% chance the Fed would pause in January. Futures also implied only 37 basis points of cuts for 2025, against two expected under the Fed's dot plot.

WHY IT MATTERS

Fewer expected rate cuts keep the dollar supported, which can weigh on dollar-denominated commodity prices. The effect on feed markets is indirect.

AFFECTSDXY▲

SOURCE
reuters.comGertrude Chavez-DreyfussJan 7, 2025

Price reaction & history

DXY▲bullishSO FAR1d +0.1%5d +1.2%20d -0.3%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, DXY moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

Mar 2, 2023Dollar firms after U.S. labor data suggests more rate hikes | Reuters+0.7%
Jun 7, 2024US dollar bounces as strong jobs report likely delays Fed easing this year+1.4%
Apr 7, 2023Dollar firms as US jobs report backs Fed hike in May | Reuters-0.8%
Jun 13, 2018Dollar mostly firmer as Fed sees more U.S. rate hikes | Reuters+1.3%
Mar 10, 2022Euro eases after ECB meeting, while dollar firms following inflation data | Reuters+0.2%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

DXY · GP ▸

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