
The USDA January 2025 Cold Storage report shows US butter stocks rose 26% month on month to 270.3 million pounds, the highest January level since 2021. Cheese inventories narrowed their annual deficit to 5.7%, while cream multiples fell to decade lows.
A butter glut and collapsing cream prices pressure dairy product values and reduce milk prices paid to producers, lowering the income that supports dairy feed demand.
After 273 past bearish report events, MILK moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.