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Chinese hog producers were more profitable in 2024 on higher hog prices and lower costs, but expansion has been slower than USDA expected because many companies operated at a loss and postponed investments. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs cut its breeding sow target from 41 million to 39 million, and USDA raised its 2024 hog production estimate.
Slower herd expansion and a lower sow target limit near-term growth in Chinese pork output and feed demand. This is mildly supportive for hog prices and feed ingredient demand relative to a faster rebuild.
tridge.comVictor LangatMar 18, 2025After 100 past bullish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
