A USDA FAS semi-annual livestock report on China forecasts lower 2025 pork production and higher beef imports, while revising pork imports down to 2024 levels on depressed demand. The report excludes the retaliatory tariffs China announced March 4, which take effect March 10.
Lower Chinese pork import demand is bearish for hog prices and meat meal sentiment, while higher beef imports support beef export demand. The tariff exclusion means the forecast may understate trade disruption.
After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 268 past bullish report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.