A GIEWS country brief forecasts India's 2025 wheat crop at a record 115.4 million tonnes, with harvesting due to finish by May. Cereal production for 2024 is also forecast at a record level, and rice and wheat prices were higher year on year in February 2025.
A record Indian wheat crop adds to global wheat supply and eases pressure on import demand. Higher domestic rice and wheat prices, however, reflect firmer local costs.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 50 past neutral report events, Rough Rice moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.5%), and -1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.