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The RBI Bulletin reviews India's 2022-23 kharif season, noting above-normal southwest monsoon rainfall but uneven distribution and late-season heavy rain that could hurt standing crops. It outlines a rabi outlook where September rains, higher minimum support prices and a normal northeast monsoon could lift wheat acreage and yields.
A stronger Indian rabi wheat outlook could reduce import needs and add supply to Asian feed grain markets, a mildly bearish factor for wheat and corn prices.
rbi.org.inReserve Bank of IndiaDec 20, 2022After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 50 past neutral report events, Rough Rice moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.5%), and -1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
