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The euro and European stocks had fallen after Trump abruptly threatened 50% tariffs on EU imports, citing slow trade talks. Markets recovered after a phone call that eased tensions.
Tariff threats against the EU raise risk for transatlantic trade in agricultural goods, and the easing of the threat lowers near-term downside for trade flows and the dollar.
After 12 past bullish trade events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.