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Live cattle futures have been rising on tight supply, with the continuous contract near $210.48 on May 27. USDA counted 86.7 million head on January 1, the lowest since 1951, and a Mexican live cattle import ban over New World screwworm is further tightening supplies.
Shrinking herd size and the import halt support cattle prices and reduce feeder supply available to feedlots, keeping feed demand for grain and meal lower than otherwise.
interactivebrokers.comSteven LevineMay 28, 2025After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 122 past bullish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
