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Rabobank's 2025/26 Australian Winter Crop Outlook forecasts a record 24.5 million hectares planted, but total production at a base case of 53.9Mt versus 59.7Mt last year. Wheat area is expected to drop, especially in Western Australia, due to fertiliser costs and weaker prospects.
Lower projected production and falling wheat area point to tighter Australian supply, mildly supportive for wheat prices, while higher fertiliser costs weigh on planting decisions.
sfs.org.auMay 25, 2025After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 76 past bullish report events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
