
The USDA's May World Agricultural Production report forecasts EU wheat output for 2025/26 at 136.0 million tonnes, up 11% year on year. The increase reflects a 6% larger harvested area of 24.0 million ha and a yield of 5.67 t/ha.
Favorable crop conditions and higher French and German wheat plantings support the forecast.
A USDA-confirmed EU wheat rebound increases global export supply and reduces EU import needs. This is bearish for wheat and wheat-based feed prices.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.