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NASA Harvest reports on a new study of how ENSO affects drought and wheat production in Afghanistan from 2016 to 2021. The research links El Niño and La Niña phases to crop failures and food insecurity in the country.
This is a food-security study about a small import market, with limited direct effect on global feed grain or oilseed prices.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.