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A Cargill AWB analyst says the eastern Australian cropping belt faces a difficult harvest after one of the wettest starts to the year on record. Sowing was drawn out and maturity is highly variable, and a significant area of winter crop will go unplanted.
Forward sales are the lowest for this time of year in some time, with under 15% of the crop sold.
Low forward sales and uneven crop maturity leave Australian supply uncertain, which can support wheat prices into harvest. Above-average rain forecast through spring adds to the yield risk.
theland.com.auMatt Wallis, Cargill AwbAug 17, 2022After 224 past neutral weather events, WHEAT moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
