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On June 26, 2025 the dollar fell to its lowest level since 2021 against the euro and sterling. Futures traders priced a 23% chance of a July Fed cut and about 93% odds of a cut by September.
Traders expected about 66 basis points of cuts by year-end.
Expected Fed rate cuts reduce the dollar's yield advantage, which weakens the currency and tends to support dollar-denominated commodity prices. Lower US rates can also ease financing costs for feed and livestock operations.
reuters.comKaren BrettellJun 26, 2025After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
