A screwworm outbreak in northern Mexico is raising concerns about cattle health and cross-border cattle trade into the US. Industry sources warn it could cut Mexican cattle flows into Texas feedlots and weaken U.S. DDGS exports to Mexico, which took 227,548 mt in March.
Fewer Mexican cattle reduce feedlot demand for DDGS, a bearish factor for the feed ingredient, while tighter feeder cattle supply supports cattle prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 122 past bullish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.