A riceland.coop market update reviews the June 12 WASDE, which left old-crop rice changes small and raised medium grain production about 10% on higher California acres. It notes projected medium grain ending stocks rising to 24 million bushels and continued high import forecasts for both long and medium grain.
Ample projected world and US supplies and higher imports weigh on US rough rice values, while the June 30 Acreage report could trigger larger new-crop acreage cuts.
After 87 past bearish report events, RICE moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.