
The FAO expects global rice stocks to reach a record 198.1 million tonnes at the close of 2023/24, driven by India and China. Vietnamese and Thai 5% broken prices fell about $30 per ton from August 31 peaks as Philippine demand slowed while importers await a tariff cut decision.
Large projected stocks in India and China point to easing rice prices ahead, reducing the cost pressure from the recent export-driven spike. Buyers should expect softer rice prices unless new export curbs emerge.
After 87 past bearish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.