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The USDA's monthly supply/demand report cut US rice field yields but raised ending stocks by 2.3 million cwt to 23.2 million cwt, an 11% increase. The report also reflected a severe drop in US exports and rising imports of jasmine and basmati rice this marketing year.
Higher ending stocks and weak exports add to US rice supply, which is bearish for domestic rice prices despite the smaller yield estimate.
After 87 past bearish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.