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USDA announced risk-based phased reopening of southern ports to cattle, bison and equine imports from Mexico, starting with Douglas, Arizona, as early as July 7. The decision follows improved sterile fly dispersal and surveillance in Mexico, with no notable rise in screwworm cases there for eight weeks.
The ports had been closed since May 11.
Resumed Mexican feeder cattle imports would add supply to a tight U.S. market, which is likely to pressure feeder cattle prices and ease the historic beef price run-up over time.
usda.govJun 30, 2025After 87 past bearish trade events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.9%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The official USDA notice of southern port reopening starting July 7 is the source of the supply-outlook shift behind the futures selloff.
USDA's June 30 announcement of a phased reopening of Mexican cattle imports from July 7 raises expected feeder supply, a bearish trade-flow factor for cattle futures.
