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China is reducing soybean meal use in animal feed under a three-year plan, cutting the inclusion rate from 14.5% toward 13% by 2025. Beijing has also approved rapeseed meal from new suppliers and signed a reported $900 million soybean meal deal with Argentina, priced up to $50/ton below US product.
Lower soymeal inclusion in China and diversification to Argentine and rapeseed supply reduce demand for US soybean meal and shift trade flows. The price effect is bearish for soymeal, with competing protein sources gaining share.
ukragroconsult.comJul 8, 2025After 384 past bearish trade events, SBM moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
