
Russian rough rice carryover stocks could reach 200 to 210 thousand tons by September 1, up from 59.3 thousand tons, according to the National Rice Union. Stocks are elevated due to low prices, a ban on raw rice exports and a 50 thousand ton limit on rice groats exports.
Large carryover stocks and export restrictions are expected to weigh on the selling price of the new Russian crop and add to surplus conditions in the rice market.
After 100 past bearish policy events, Rough Rice moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.