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China has reportedly limited exports of specialty fertilizers and DAP to India. India meets about 40% of its DAP consumption domestically and imports most of the rest.
Officials are reportedly concerned about supply vulnerability.
Reduced Chinese DAP supply to India tightens global phosphate availability and supports DAP prices, which can push up costs for Indian and other importing farmers.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.